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2019 Pacific hurricane season (Dj Solar)
The 2019 Pacific hurricane season was the most active season on record since reliable records began in 1971, featuring the second-most intense hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Octave. The season officially began on May 15 in the East Pacific Ocean, and on June 1 in the Central Pacific; they will both end on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Eastern Pacific basin. Pacific basin. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year. __TOC__ Seasonal forecasts On May 15, 2019, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued its first forecast for the season, predicting a total of 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes to develop. On May 23, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual forecast, predicting a 70% chance of a near- to above-average season in both the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, with a total of 15-22 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-8 major hurricanes. The reason for their outlook was the forecast of an El Niño to continue through the season, which reduces vertical wind shear across the basin and increases sea surface temperatures, favoring increased tropical cyclone activity. In addition, many global computer models expected a positive Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), a phase of a multi-decade cycle that favored much warmer than average sea surface temperatures that had been ongoing since 2014 to continue, in contrast to the 1995–2013 period, which generally featured below normal activity. Systems Hurricane Alvin On June 19, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began to forecast the formation of a low-pressure area off the southwestern coast of Mexico within the next several days. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated with a westward-moving tropical wave, developed in the region on June 22, with a low-pressure system forming in association with the system on the following day. During the next few days, the system gradually organized as it moved west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico. By 21:00 UTC on June 25, the disturbance had developed sufficiently organized convection as well as a sufficiently-defined center of circulation to be classified as a tropical depression, the first of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season. The tropical depression slowly strengthened while moving westward, becoming a tropical storm and receiving the name Alvin eighteen hours later. Warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and high relative humidity provided a generally favorable environment for Alvin to strengthen over the next couple of days, as it was steered westward to the south of a subtropical ridge. Early on June 28, by 03:00 UTC, Alvin reached its peak intensity and strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane, becoming the first hurricane of the season. Microwave imagery revealed that Alvin possessed a small inner core, with an eye around in diameter. However, just six hours later, southwesterly wind shear began to increase as Alvin turned northwestwards, causing the cyclone to weaken back to a tropical storm. Rapid weakening commenced thereafter, as strong southeasterly wind shear and cooler ocean waters began to take their toll, and the cyclone weakened to a tropical depression early on June 29. At 15:00 UTC that day, Alvin degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low, after losing its remaining convection. References Category:Pacific hurricane seasons